Zodiac Times

God measures our time by Zodiac Clock. I am an astrologer. I know how to read God's clock. But it is my business what I do with my alotted time. This is my spiritual journey.

Posts Tagged ‘trickle-down economics’

New Economy, or Buy American, Stupid!

Posted by Ella Moss on February 20, 2009

So, the new stimulus package is passed, hopes are up, markets are down,  and recession deepens. Everyone is blaming the housing market, unscrupulous bankers and inept previous administration.
But very few seem to understand the true roots of our woes, and how deep our economic problems go.
Believe me, the trillion dollar stimulus is but a bandaid on a very deep wound!
Everyone is stuck with the 20th century economic model:
an entrepreneur discovers a need->manufactures solution->gets rich->creates demands->someone else fulfills those demands->gets rich->creates more demands->those who supply solutions get rich too->created jobs create more jobs->society gets richer and richer

This is the 21st century global economics model:
manufacturers/suppliers find cheaper workforce in a poor country->enrich that country->the workforce gets more expensive->the suppliers go to another cheaper country->previous producing countries get poorer, their workforce immigrates to a new labor market->wages stagnate or get lower->more labor markets get poorer->no one can afford the supplies anymore->manufacturers go bust->everyone gets even poorer.

If you don’t believe me, here’s a news bit on Ireland. Ireland was in great demand as a labor market, because people spoke English, were educated, yet asked for much lower wages than UK or American workers. The labor market there was so hot, that Polish and other poorer EU brethren immigrated to Ireland.
But the workers grew too expensive in Ireland as economy there heated up, so the companies left for cheaper labor markets like Poland. Now Irish workers immigrate to Poland. But they no longer get the same wages. Living expenses are cheaper in Poland for now, so it makes some sense. Once Polish economy booms, however, and living expense there goes, accordingly, up, Poland would face the same economic bust, as now does Ireland.
India was also a popular labor market. But they started asking for too much money, so China became a place to be for manufacturers.
Lately, however, the “smart” manufacturers have been migrating to Africa.

Where does it leave the U.S. – the original place of labor migration?
I found an article in one of the New York’s free newspapers (Metro is it?) that the U.S. stills manufactures 65% of its products domestically (down from the 20th century’s 80%).
But it does not say, that the domestic wages went up. Because for the past 7 – 8 years they have not. Domestic salaries have not increased either. In fact, many went down. Because our labor force now competes for wages with Irish, Polish, Indian, Chinese, Mexican and other labor forces of the world.
The only market that saw increase in the U.S. in the past 8 years was the housing market, as speculators (flippers, real estate and mortgage brokers) kept pushing the prices up to the point of unaffordability by the impoverished middle class (the domestic labor force).
The feeling of prosperity that bubble has created had no base in reality. That feeling was based on the ease of credit (future income of financial sector ->future prosperity), which was given on a funny assumption that housing prices would continue to rise as wages have historically done so, affording better prices.
But our wages could no longer support our consumption on easy credit, hence prices and credit crunch.
No matter where our income was coming from, its sources were disappearing or getting smaller at best.
Not only manufacturing was leaving America, services were too.
Web design, translations, document processing, customer service – all were becoming outsourced. When was the last time you have heard a customer service representative on the other end of the phone that did not speak with an Indian accent?
People in this country that specialized in the services that were now easily outsourced could no longer ask for wage increase, if they were to be kept employed.

In the 21st century, the labor market is global. That means, the wages for the same services performed would eventually average out. If a Russian translator in the U.S. asks now for $.14/word, and a Russian translator in Siberia asks now for $.05/wd for the same job, eventually they will all go down to $.05/wd. If a worker at a Chrysler plant in Detroit asks for $35/hr, and a worker at a Chrysler plant in Mexico asks for $5/hr, eventually they will all ask for $5/hr – because it is natural for any company to seek out a cheaper labor.
Since the impoverished global workforce is not going to be able to afford $30,000 cars and $300,000 homes, those prices will go down too -unless they are artificially held high by governments’ bailouts. But bailouts cannot continue indefinitely. So the prices will continue to deflate in accordance with deflated average incomes. Middle class is going to disappear (it may take a few decades), unless the governments would wake up and set up some protection.

No, not trade protection – that is passe. It is the labor markets that must be protected, if we don’t want to go back to the economy we used to have throughout 10th – 19th centuries – the economy of a few very rich, and the rest being very poor indeed.

But I am not stupid enough to expect our government (or any other for that matter) to step in with labor force protection. Besides, the ease and cheapness of global communication and travel would create serious obstacles to any attempt to create such protection.
The only thing that may protect our domestic labor force is the consumer movement. Just as our demand for green products has eventually created green industries, our demand for products made in America may protect domestic work force..to some extent.
Incidently, when was the last time you saw something made in America in a store?

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IT’S THE ECONOMY, STUPID!

Posted by Ella Moss on September 15, 2008

In this post, I am going to deviate a bit from the main theme of the blog in order to put in my 2 cents as to what is going on this Monday, 9/15 – which is surely to become a historic date with Lehman Brothers declaring bankruptcy, AIG struggling to hold on and begging for government to save it, and Merryl Lynch being bought out by surely overextended Bank of America that just gobbled up Country-Wide and another bank.
This is American economy tearing up at the seam.
In fact, it is in the contracting stage that may take us into black hole of true depression.
It goes like this:
Fuel + Energy go up -> food + other consumer goods go up -> discretionary income goes down -> affluent consumer dependent businesses go down -> unemployment rises -> discretionary + necessary income evaporate -> housing market that is undergoing righteous correction dips further -> more banks go down -> credit tightens further ->new ventures and investment in start ups go down ->market stagnates at the bottom
Is there a way out? GOVERNMENT MUST STEP IN to reverse this chain of events, but not by bailing out greedy investors or by expanding social welfare system.
When businesses begin to fail and unemployment rises, the government should increase its payroll and spend on infrastructure, and energy R & D. Then unemployment goes down -> discretional spending goes up -> more business thrive -> more people are employed -> more $ for everyone.
None of presidential candidates talk about the U.S.’ failing infrastructure. In fact McCain wants to rein in the government spending. THIS IS NOT THE TIME TO DO IT. Let our deficit grow, let us borrow money to keep the economy going, or the big U.S.A. can also become bankrupt. THIS IS VERY POSSIBLE!
In fact, as an astrologer, I certainly look at 2010 – 2011 as the time of economic earthquake of huge magnitude in this country.
I have business education, and have been in business all my adult life. My common sense and my experience both say that tightening of credit during economic downturn is the recipe for disaster.
One fact is particularly scary: McCain’s main adviser on economy is the mastermind of chopped up and repackaged mortgages – the investment instrument of “financial destruction” that got our economy into hot water in the first place.
Even though I stand by my prediction that McCain is going to be our next president, I do not favor him. He is planning to continue the Republican party economic policies, which, essentially boil down to trickle-down-economics theory.
This theory does not work because in reality it works like this:
With global markets and labor pools wide open, outsourcing lowers the wages ->the middle class and poor grow poorer -> the pool of unemployed and desperate rises -> more people would take low paying hard jobs ->the rich may lower the wages and demand more-> the rich grow richer -> the poor grows poorer.
If you don’t believe it, go back to history books: that’s how it has been throughout history, which has always had trickle-down economy. The middle class rose to empowering numbers in this country during the middle of the twentieth century only, and only thanks to FDR’s policies set to end depression – which was exactly what I advocate: spending government money, lowering credit and putting people to work.
Obama does not have the right solutions to problems of American economy either. But, at least, he is planning on spending. He also wants to tax the rich, while bringing welcome relieve to the middle class.
I don’t know how about you, guys, but I am voting for Obama as for lesser evil!
P.S. Hail to the Chief! After 8 years of stripping the country of much of its democracy, getting us involved in the war on 2 fronts, ruining economy by allowing unprecedented speculation in real estate mortgages, he now refuses AIG the bridge loan it needs to survive. AIG’s demise would send such ripples through the world economy, that would send American economy over the tipping point. SOS!
P.P.S. 9/16
Well, here we go: McCain just announced that he would create a special commission that would study the current financial problems. As we don’t know what got us into the hole. But it would certainly create another 2 years of government inaction. By that time, we all are going to be in the poor house, because McCain also thinks that AIG is expendable (just when they finally found a semblance of a brain in the White House and are considering helping AIG to stay afloat).
The reason we all are heading into the poor house once AIG sinks is because it insures and underwrites many, many other banks and such entities as NY state and NYC!…
And, just think, I have once considered voting for McCain! Shame on me for giving Bush the Third a benefit of a doubt…
Honestly, I don’t think this country’s economic infrastructure could take another 4 years of no brains at the top…
P.P.P.S
So the White House has borrowed the brains and lent AIG staggering amount of $$$. It also looks at owning 80% of AIG. So it would become insurance Fanny or Freddy… And then, maybe, it would be able to pay its debt to China :-) )

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