A few days ago a friend of mine confided that she did not have a raise in 10 years, and now her company is cutting her hours.
My friend is a physical therapist.
I am an owner of a tiny business in a completely different field. My income is neither wages nor salary. It is the net profit from my business. Yet I have the same predicament. My income remained flat for 12 years.
When I was single, living in a posh building in a posh part of town and paying $900 in monthly rent, which included utilities, that was a pretty good income, and I was certainly a middle class girl.
Moreover, my income increased steadily through the nineties, and I was certain of a decent future for myself.
I was so certain, in fact, that I did not bother to save for a rainy day.
I did whole a lot of traveling, skiing, and other fun things.
Then I got married, had a kid, moved to a cheaper part of town where I got an apartment twice as big for monthly rent just a bit higher than my previous digs.
My income remained the same because my subcontractors kept raising their rates but my clients began to cheapen out. Excuses were understandable: we did have a recession in 2000, then in 2001 (“9/11″), then in 2003, etc.
I probably could get out of my shell and get more clients to increase my income, but my kid and failing marriage kept me busy.
Then in the fall of 2007 I finally became a single mom, and 2 months later the FINANCIAL CRISIS hit me (my business is closely related to the insurance industry so I’ve experienced the crisis long before the rest of America did).
In 2008, my income went down significantly. So now I had no choice and got out of my shell, and got myself many more clients. I have also reduced rates of my subcontractors.
Yet my income did not jump. It simply went back to the pre-crisis level, because I had to cut my rates also. Everyone is in the bind.
I am not even talking about payment time-table that is now 4 times as long. Before the crisis, if a company took 2 months or longer to pay, I was on their case already. Now I don’t even bother with inquiries till 4 months past due.
It is my flat income that gets me, because my life is twice as expensive now. My rent now is $1510/mo, plus utilities that are twice what they used to be in 2000. My ground phone line that I use for fax only is also twice of what it used to be in 2000. So is my transportation expense, internet, my cell phones, etc.
My monthly grocery bill has grown now more than twice, even though my son and I eat much less than my ex (it used to be that half of my monthly grocery budget went to his propitiation).
In other words, it takes now twice the amount of dollars to cover living expenses, and they say there is no inflation.
There is no inflation, because our incomes have deflated.
It used to be that incomes would grow almost at the same rate as inflation of overall prices. It was called inflation, and was supposed to be a bad thing for economy.
Now I miss inflation. Because the value of my dollar has shrank 50% or more, but I don’t have more paper in my wallet to make up the lost value. My paper income remains flat, but the real income has shrank.
I am no longer a middle class girl, I am a working poor one, and my future looks pretty bleak. I have no extra dollar to save, I have no pension coming, and as an entrepreneur I have no other safety nets like unemployment benefits, which my ex is enjoying now.
Instead, I am working 3 times as much as I used to, and spend so much more just to get the same shrinking dollar.
I would not be writing about it, if it was just my predicament. I am writing about it, because 90% of Americans are in this shrinking boat.
Even the super-rich (like Warren Buffet or Bill Gates) have lost some dollar value thanks to real estate and stock market deflation. I am sure though that they are offsetting their rising living expense by paying less those who work for them or do business with them.
The simply rich (like Donald Trump) may actually feel much poorer because they lost just as much on stock market, real estate, Bernie Madoff and their leverage in reducing cost of business / living is not as great.
The upper middle class is now, for most part, is what middle class used to be, for the same reason.
Middle class… What middle class? Unless you are a civil servant, you would no longer fit that category. I bet your 401K keeps you awake at night.
There are so many things that went wrong for the dollar that there are not enough fingers on a hand to point them all out: derivatives, run-away credit, the cost of oil, global labor market…
Honestly, it is the global labor market that is the main culprit in stagnation of American income. But that is 10,000lbs gorilla in the room that no one is talking about. Trust me, immigration is the least of our problem. It is competition with the guys safely in their native third world countries that is doing us in. No one is talking about it on CNN, because business is happy with reduced labor costs. Except that most businesspeople don’t realize yet that spending their dollars in China or Africa shrinks consumption in America, which, inevitably, leads to their profit remaining flat too despite the reduced labor costs.
Simple economy101: wealth is produced where goods are produced.
The great minds who decided to open the labor market in 1990s must have thought as follows:
As other countries get richer, there are going to be more markets for American goods, so America would get richer too.
They did not take in consideration, however, that American production would not be able to compete with cheaper labor costs elsewhere and would shut down, impoverishing our country for the sake of China, Uganda and so on.
The only reason we did not feel the pinch right away was the inflated real estate market that was still producing local wealth. With wind taken out of real estate, we are finally facing reality.
And, since Obama Administration was not able to push through another emergency unemployment benefits bill, we soon are going to see the third world reality right here at home.
These changes cannot really be amended anymore. With the advent of the internet, Jinny of American wealth has completely left the bottle and cannot be re-captured. We are looking at the dawn of new world, where Russia (the richest country in natural resources), China (the richest country in labor resources) and India (the richest country in intellectual resources) are going to compete for new super-power title (my money is on China, since it is much more organized); the U.S., Europe, Canada, Australia and Brazil are going to be the second world, and the rest remain in the 3rd place. The jury is out on Arab countries rich with oil. If the green economy takes hold, they are going to be pushed back into the third world. They may also simply kill themselves with suicide bombers, expanded Taliban, etc.
SO, PLEASE, AMERICA, BUY AMERICAN PRODUCTS AND USE LOCAL SERVICES!
But, then, again, who can afford American products now when American dollar has shrunk so much…
Well, I am griping now, yet I know there is going to be more to gripe about a month from now… Read my previous article on that.
Posts Tagged ‘unemployment’
SHRINKING DOLLARS
Posted by Ella Moss on June 25, 2010
Posted in American economy, FINANCES, economy, global economy, labor market, personal finance, predictions | Tagged: 401K, American economy, Bill Gates, Brazil, budget, business, China, deflation, dollar, Donald Trump, economy, economy solutions, Europe, expense, financial crisis, global economy, immigration, income, India, inflation, labor market, living expense, money, Obama, Obama Administration, predictions, Russia, savings, suicide bombers, supeer-power, unemployment, unemployment benefits, value, Warren Buffet, wealth, worry | 4 Comments »
MORE ON THE GREAT FINANCIAL DISASTER OF 2010
Posted by Ella Moss on December 1, 2009
As I was drinking coffee this morning and watching the news, the potential default of Dubai Government Fund perked my ears.
“This is it”, I’ve told myself, “My predictions are beginning to manifest”.
In my October 2008 article “Financial Crisis: it’s not over until it’s over” I’ve predicted that the world will tremble in December of 2009 from some terrible financial news, as Pluto enters Capricorn and begins to wreck governmental and corporate institutions.
I also said, “By the end of November of 2009, we would begin to cry for mercy, as our economy would get completely stalled: Saturn, the planet of lack and limitations, joins Pluto, the Terminator, in the assault on the U.S. Venus, the planet of Money. It begins to squeeze it from Libra, the sign of relationships and justice. So as global trade gets restructured, we get the foul end of the deal. Saturn would limit our reach into the packets of other countries. We may face the retribution for our misadventures on foreign soil and/ or for amassing huge deficit (read “debt to other countries”).
But I was wrong: it’s not our country’s deficit that is going to do us in, but other countries’ default on their debt obligations.
Since I am just an astrologer and not a psychic, I got timing and institutions involved right, but I could not foresee the actual turn of events. Who could?
Dubai has been swimming in gold, its coffers filled to the brim, it seemed, by oil it was sitting on. It was building the new world wonders and aimed at becoming the new world financial center. It appeared to be the richest country in the Middle East, and its only foreseen threat was depletion of oil reserves at some point of the far away future.
So a whole lot of pension and hedge funds from all kind of countries invested in it, thinking it was almost risk-free.
Think about it:
The first part of the world financial crisis that ruptured in the fall of 2008 was brought in by losses of private investors. As bad as it was, it was contained by huge governmental bail-outs by governments of the developed world.
This strategy indebted governments of the richest countries but defrosted financial markets.
Now comes the second part (i.e. the other shoe drops):
Governments begin defaulting.
Private financial institutions are already seriously ailing, and are held alive by financial transfusions by the governments. Now the governments need donors…AND WHO COULD RESCUE THEM??…..
Dubai is just a beginning of the falling dominoes. If it defaults, the legions of pension and hedge funds that invested in it are going to collapse, and THERE IS GOING TO BE NO FINANCIAL DONOR TO SAVE THEM.
This means that
1) many retirees all over the world are going to be left without pensions, and governments, already stretched to the max, would have to extend more social services to them and bleed more money.
2)Financial institutions are going to freeze once again, as investors lose a few more billions
AND WHO IS GOING TO BAIL THEM OUT THIS TIME? WHERE NEW MONEY IS GOING TO COME FROM?
The developed world is going to lose its footing and fall onto the developing world, crushing it.
3)The developing world (save for China, Russia and India) is going to default too. AND WHO IS GOING TO BAIL THEM OUT THIS TIME? WHERE NEW MONEY IS GOING TO COME FROM?
4) Unemployment and riots are going to shoot up. Would Obama be able to sign 3 yrs unemployment benefits? Where the U.S. money is going to come from?
Now the question is should I get my savings out of the bank before the summer of 2010 (that is when the world crushes)? I should take a good look at a horary chart on that one…
The good news is that the timing of events suggests that the actual birth date of the U.S. is actually July 2. Now we know.
Posted in astrology, economy, politics | Tagged: 2010, astrological forecast, bail out, developed world, developing world, Dubai, economy, financial crisis, financial institutions, global economy, government, hedge funds, pension funds, Pluto in Capricorn, predictions, predictions 2010, Saturn in Libra, summer of 2010, unemployment | 6 Comments »
MY KINDER UNIVERSE
Posted by Ella Moss on July 21, 2009
When my son was 1.5 y.o., I joined the majority of Russian community in NYC and rented a “dacha” in Catskills for a summer.
“Dachas” are cottages in a small community of summer residents, located in rural areas, often by a lake.
The cottages offer minimal amenities. “Dachniki” must bring with them bedding, pans and pens, and everything else that would sustain them for 2 months of mostly outdoor living.
Summers in NYC tend to be hot and humid. Working parents must either send their kids to camps or hire babysitters (could be more expensive). When kids are too young for camps, it could be especially hard on parents, as I quickly found out.
Luckily, someone suggested a “dacha”. I packed half of my apartment and the kid, and off to the woods I went.
Of course, I could not afford to spend the whole summer here, so we have arranged 2-weeks shifts with all the relatives we could find.
On dachas, kids and parents enjoy the company and freedom (there is no need to watch them every second, as they play in the meadows of an enclosed community, with plenty of friendly adults seeing their every move).
I fell in love with the lazy summer days by the lake, and could no longer contemplate a summer without dacha.
Of course, once my son was old enough for summer camp, we cut the season to a month (arranging shifts with relatives was too complicated), and for 3 weeks in August our son would shuttle daily to Nyak from NYC, where his day camp was located.
We could afford this kind of summer kid-care thanks to tax returns on my husband’s w-2 income. My business has been too tiny to afford anything like that.
Even though my husband and I separated 2 yrs ago, we kept filing jointly specifically for this purpose.
But as of this January, he has been laid off, and there are not going to be any tax returns for us next year.
I was coming this July to my little heaven in Catskills, knowing that this was to be the last time.
As my stay here began nearing the end (this Sunday we are leaving), I began to be more and more upset.
I was trying to imagine a summer with no dacha or summer camp:
My son would have to tag along to my work (and I work all over the city) every day. Of course, he would practice reading in Russian on the subway, and then quietly play his DS while I work, and then we would visit our park in the evening.
On weekends, we could go to beaches on Brighton Beach, Long Island or Staten Island. It would be hot, and the water would be cold and dirty…
It would be a very lonely summer for him (all his friends are going to be away on dachas and in camps, but life is life, right?
I thought about getting a dog to brighten his days, but how would we take a puppy to my work? – Scratch that…
Last night, thinking of all that, I could not sleep, so I went out on my porch to have a cigarette.
The lake at dawn was simmering, birds were having a big breakfast, while chirping away, and the beauty of all that was breath-taking.
“I cannot give this up”, I thought. “In fact, for years now my brain has been working over-time to find a way for me to live like that a year round.
This dacha is taylor-made for me by God: I’ve got the best view of the lake from my porch. I have a deck to do my yoga on. I can go for a swim without taking even a towel with me – my cottage is 25 feet from the incredible pristine spring water of this lake. People are great. My friends from NYC live on dachas a walking distance away. If I need company, it’s here; if I need solitude, I have it. I can work here. I have internet, and my cell is working here, so I can network and take orders.
And only $3,000 stand between this, and a 2-months torture for me and my son. This is not a big money. $3,000 can buy 10 days on Bagamas, 1 week of skiing in Catskills, or 1 month here. I am certain that just like God found this perfect place for me, He can find this money for me too.”
I prayed, and peace came upon me. That minute I knew, that I should leave a deposit for the next year. My Universe is kind. It knows no recessions, and is always ready to supply all my needs. This is what I beleve, and this is what I shall have.
Posted in enlightenment, spirituality | Tagged: Catskills, child-care, economy, Faith, God, kids, kind Universe, laid off, money, recession, spirituality, summer, tax returns, taxes, unemployment, vacation, worry | 6 Comments »
New Economy, or Buy American, Stupid!
Posted by Ella Moss on February 20, 2009
So, the new stimulus package is passed, hopes are up, markets are down, and recession deepens. Everyone is blaming the housing market, unscrupulous bankers and inept previous administration.
But very few seem to understand the true roots of our woes, and how deep our economic problems go.
Believe me, the trillion dollar stimulus is but a bandaid on a very deep wound!
Everyone is stuck with the 20th century economic model:
an entrepreneur discovers a need->manufactures solution->gets rich->creates demands->someone else fulfills those demands->gets rich->creates more demands->those who supply solutions get rich too->created jobs create more jobs->society gets richer and richer
This is the 21st century global economics model:
manufacturers/suppliers find cheaper workforce in a poor country->enrich that country->the workforce gets more expensive->the suppliers go to another cheaper country->previous producing countries get poorer, their workforce immigrates to a new labor market->wages stagnate or get lower->more labor markets get poorer->no one can afford the supplies anymore->manufacturers go bust->everyone gets even poorer.
If you don’t believe me, here’s a news bit on Ireland. Ireland was in great demand as a labor market, because people spoke English, were educated, yet asked for much lower wages than UK or American workers. The labor market there was so hot, that Polish and other poorer EU brethren immigrated to Ireland.
But the workers grew too expensive in Ireland as economy there heated up, so the companies left for cheaper labor markets like Poland. Now Irish workers immigrate to Poland. But they no longer get the same wages. Living expenses are cheaper in Poland for now, so it makes some sense. Once Polish economy booms, however, and living expense there goes, accordingly, up, Poland would face the same economic bust, as now does Ireland.
India was also a popular labor market. But they started asking for too much money, so China became a place to be for manufacturers.
Lately, however, the “smart” manufacturers have been migrating to Africa.
Where does it leave the U.S. – the original place of labor migration?
I found an article in one of the New York’s free newspapers (Metro is it?) that the U.S. stills manufactures 65% of its products domestically (down from the 20th century’s 80%).
But it does not say, that the domestic wages went up. Because for the past 7 – 8 years they have not. Domestic salaries have not increased either. In fact, many went down. Because our labor force now competes for wages with Irish, Polish, Indian, Chinese, Mexican and other labor forces of the world.
The only market that saw increase in the U.S. in the past 8 years was the housing market, as speculators (flippers, real estate and mortgage brokers) kept pushing the prices up to the point of unaffordability by the impoverished middle class (the domestic labor force).
The feeling of prosperity that bubble has created had no base in reality. That feeling was based on the ease of credit (future income of financial sector ->future prosperity), which was given on a funny assumption that housing prices would continue to rise as wages have historically done so, affording better prices.
But our wages could no longer support our consumption on easy credit, hence prices and credit crunch.
No matter where our income was coming from, its sources were disappearing or getting smaller at best.
Not only manufacturing was leaving America, services were too.
Web design, translations, document processing, customer service – all were becoming outsourced. When was the last time you have heard a customer service representative on the other end of the phone that did not speak with an Indian accent?
People in this country that specialized in the services that were now easily outsourced could no longer ask for wage increase, if they were to be kept employed.
In the 21st century, the labor market is global. That means, the wages for the same services performed would eventually average out. If a Russian translator in the U.S. asks now for $.14/word, and a Russian translator in Siberia asks now for $.05/wd for the same job, eventually they will all go down to $.05/wd. If a worker at a Chrysler plant in Detroit asks for $35/hr, and a worker at a Chrysler plant in Mexico asks for $5/hr, eventually they will all ask for $5/hr – because it is natural for any company to seek out a cheaper labor.
Since the impoverished global workforce is not going to be able to afford $30,000 cars and $300,000 homes, those prices will go down too -unless they are artificially held high by governments’ bailouts. But bailouts cannot continue indefinitely. So the prices will continue to deflate in accordance with deflated average incomes. Middle class is going to disappear (it may take a few decades), unless the governments would wake up and set up some protection.
No, not trade protection – that is passe. It is the labor markets that must be protected, if we don’t want to go back to the economy we used to have throughout 10th – 19th centuries – the economy of a few very rich, and the rest being very poor indeed.
But I am not stupid enough to expect our government (or any other for that matter) to step in with labor force protection. Besides, the ease and cheapness of global communication and travel would create serious obstacles to any attempt to create such protection.
The only thing that may protect our domestic labor force is the consumer movement. Just as our demand for green products has eventually created green industries, our demand for products made in America may protect domestic work force..to some extent.
Incidently, when was the last time you saw something made in America in a store?
Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged: credit crunch, economy, global economy, global work force, made in America, payroll tax, predictions, recession, trickle-down economics, unemployment | 7 Comments »
IT’S THE ECONOMY, STUPID!
Posted by Ella Moss on September 15, 2008
In this post, I am going to deviate a bit from the main theme of the blog in order to put in my 2 cents as to what is going on this Monday, 9/15 – which is surely to become a historic date with Lehman Brothers declaring bankruptcy, AIG struggling to hold on and begging for government to save it, and Merryl Lynch being bought out by surely overextended Bank of America that just gobbled up Country-Wide and another bank.
This is American economy tearing up at the seam.
In fact, it is in the contracting stage that may take us into black hole of true depression.
It goes like this:
Fuel + Energy go up -> food + other consumer goods go up -> discretionary income goes down -> affluent consumer dependent businesses go down -> unemployment rises -> discretionary + necessary income evaporate -> housing market that is undergoing righteous correction dips further -> more banks go down -> credit tightens further ->new ventures and investment in start ups go down ->market stagnates at the bottom
Is there a way out? GOVERNMENT MUST STEP IN to reverse this chain of events, but not by bailing out greedy investors or by expanding social welfare system.
When businesses begin to fail and unemployment rises, the government should increase its payroll and spend on infrastructure, and energy R & D. Then unemployment goes down -> discretional spending goes up -> more business thrive -> more people are employed -> more $ for everyone.
None of presidential candidates talk about the U.S.’ failing infrastructure. In fact McCain wants to rein in the government spending. THIS IS NOT THE TIME TO DO IT. Let our deficit grow, let us borrow money to keep the economy going, or the big U.S.A. can also become bankrupt. THIS IS VERY POSSIBLE!
In fact, as an astrologer, I certainly look at 2010 – 2011 as the time of economic earthquake of huge magnitude in this country.
I have business education, and have been in business all my adult life. My common sense and my experience both say that tightening of credit during economic downturn is the recipe for disaster.
One fact is particularly scary: McCain’s main adviser on economy is the mastermind of chopped up and repackaged mortgages – the investment instrument of “financial destruction” that got our economy into hot water in the first place.
Even though I stand by my prediction that McCain is going to be our next president, I do not favor him. He is planning to continue the Republican party economic policies, which, essentially boil down to trickle-down-economics theory.
This theory does not work because in reality it works like this:
With global markets and labor pools wide open, outsourcing lowers the wages ->the middle class and poor grow poorer -> the pool of unemployed and desperate rises -> more people would take low paying hard jobs ->the rich may lower the wages and demand more-> the rich grow richer -> the poor grows poorer.
If you don’t believe it, go back to history books: that’s how it has been throughout history, which has always had trickle-down economy. The middle class rose to empowering numbers in this country during the middle of the twentieth century only, and only thanks to FDR’s policies set to end depression – which was exactly what I advocate: spending government money, lowering credit and putting people to work.
Obama does not have the right solutions to problems of American economy either. But, at least, he is planning on spending. He also wants to tax the rich, while bringing welcome relieve to the middle class.
I don’t know how about you, guys, but I am voting for Obama as for lesser evil!
P.S. Hail to the Chief! After 8 years of stripping the country of much of its democracy, getting us involved in the war on 2 fronts, ruining economy by allowing unprecedented speculation in real estate mortgages, he now refuses AIG the bridge loan it needs to survive. AIG’s demise would send such ripples through the world economy, that would send American economy over the tipping point. SOS!
P.P.S. 9/16
Well, here we go: McCain just announced that he would create a special commission that would study the current financial problems. As we don’t know what got us into the hole. But it would certainly create another 2 years of government inaction. By that time, we all are going to be in the poor house, because McCain also thinks that AIG is expendable (just when they finally found a semblance of a brain in the White House and are considering helping AIG to stay afloat).
The reason we all are heading into the poor house once AIG sinks is because it insures and underwrites many, many other banks and such entities as NY state and NYC!…
And, just think, I have once considered voting for McCain! Shame on me for giving Bush the Third a benefit of a doubt…
Honestly, I don’t think this country’s economic infrastructure could take another 4 years of no brains at the top…
P.P.P.S
So the White House has borrowed the brains and lent AIG staggering amount of $$$. It also looks at owning 80% of AIG. So it would become insurance Fanny or Freddy… And then, maybe, it would be able to pay its debt to China 
)
Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged: AIG, banking crisis, banks, Bush, deficit, economy, economy solutions, McCain, Obama, politics, taxes, trickle-down economics, unemployment, war | 4 Comments »
